Pengaruh SiLPA dan Dana Transfer Terhadap Kemandirian Keuangan Daerah dengan Belanja Modal Sebagai Variabel Intervening: Studi Kabupaten Kutai Timur

Abstract

This study comprehensively analyzes the determinants of regional financial independence in East Kutai Regency, a resource-rich region that paradoxically exhibits an extreme level of fiscal dependence on the central government, accompanied by a massive accumulation of the Remaining Budget Financing (SiLPA). Utilizing secondary time-series data spanning 20 5-2025 extracted from Budget Realization Reports, this quantitative research implements a Variance-Based Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) approach using the Stable3 and Warp3 algorithms via WarpPLS 8.0 software. The analysis proves that SiLPA has a positive and significant effect on Capital Expenditure, indicating that the previous year's budget surplus serves as the primary backbone for physical investment financing. Transfer Funds are also statistically proven to positively affect Capital Expenditure, directly confirming the existence of the Flypaper Effect phenomenon within the fiscal anatomy of mining regions. Conversely, SiLPA exerts a highly significant negative effect on Regional Financial Independence, an anomaly diagnosing the occurrence of Fiscal Laziness, where massive idle cash reserves reduce the region's incentive to optimize locally-generated revenue (PAD). Furthermore, Capital Expenditure fails to affect or mediate Financial Independence due to the consumptive and suboptimal quality of spending allocations. The managerial implications demand a total overhaul of the budget planning architecture through early procurement to eliminate artificial SiLPA inefficiencies, alongside a philosophical transformation of capital allocations towards productive sectors capable of sustainably stimulating local economic circulation.