Pengaruh Harga Emass Dunia, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Indeks Dow Jones (DJIA) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Indonesia

Abstrak

This study aims to analyze the influence of fluctuations in the World Gold Price (XAU_USD), World Oil Price (OIL), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Indonesia in the period 2020 to 2025. With a quantitative approach, this study uses secondary data of monthly time series of 72 samples sourced from Investing.com. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression with the help of SPSS 27 software, which includes the classical assumption test, partial test (t), simultaneous test (F), and coefficient of determination (R2). The results of the simultaneous test (F Test) show that world gold prices, world oil prices, and the DJIA index simultaneously have a significant effect on the IHSG (F = 7.101; p < 0.001) with the ability to explain data variations (Adjusted R Square) of 20.7%. Partially (t-test), global oil prices were shown to have a positive and significant effect on the JCI (B = 0.160; p < 0.001). Conversely, global gold prices had a negative but insignificant effect (B = -0.010; p = 0.126), and the DJIA index had a positive but insignificant effect (B = 0.083; p = 0.415). These findings indicate that Indonesian stock market movements are more responsive to global energy commodity price dynamics than asset substitution to gold or sentiment transmission from the United States stock market.