Pengaruh Ekonomi, Demografi, dan Teknologi Terhadap Degradasi Lingkungan di 5 Negara ASEAN

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of economic, demographic, and technological factors on environmental degradation across five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines) over the period 1990–2022. Grounded in the STIRPAT framework and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this study employs Panel ARDL with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The optimal model PMG (1,0,1,0,2,2) was selected based on AIC with deplags=2 and reglags=2. Long-run estimates show that GDP per capita significantly increases CO2 emissions (β = 3.191, p < 0.001), and the squared GDP term is significantly negative (β = −0.115, p < 0.001), confirming the EKC hypothesis. However, the estimated turning point (GDP per capita ≈ US$ 1,063,000) lies far beyond current income levels, indicating that income-driven emission reductions remain practically unattainable. Energy intensity is the dominant determinant (β = 0.543, p < 0.001), population growth exerts a significant negative effect (β = −0.047, p = 0.015), and renewable energy is marginally significant (β = −0.004, p = 0.067). The ECT (−0.484, p = 0.009) confirms stable convergence toward long-run equilibrium. Cross-sectional error correction results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries.