Peran Mediasi Kinerja Realisasi Anggaran Belanja dalam Hubungan Otonomi Fiskal dan Ketergantungan Transfer Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Regional: Studi Empiris di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur

الملخص

This study aims to empirically examine the mediating role of Budget Realization Performance in the relationship between Fiscal Autonomy and Transfer Dependence on Regional Economic Growth in East Kalimantan Province. Utilizing annual time-series secondary data from 2016 to 2025, this research employs Structural Equation Modeling (SEM-PLS) via WarpPLS 8.0 for model estimation and hypothesis testing. The results indicate that both Fiscal Autonomy and Transfer Dependence have a positive and significant influence on Budget Realization Performance (beta = 0.81, p < 0.01 and beta = 0.41, p = 0.05, respectively). However, Fiscal Autonomy does not exert a significant direct effect on Regional Economic Growth (beta = 0.10, p = 0.37). Budget Realization Performance acts as a full mediator (Full Mediation) in the relationship between Fiscal Autonomy and Economic Growth, with an indirect effect of 0.62 (p < 0.001), and as a partial mediator for Transfer Dependence (indirect effect of 0.270, p = 0.081). From an Islamic economics perspective, budget realization performance serves as the critical mechanism of Amanah (trust) and Stewardship (Khalifah) that transforms potential regional wealth into actual public welfare (Maslahah), preventing the hoarding of wealth (Ihtikar al-Mal) in the form of excessive unspent budget balances (SiLPA).