Pengaruh Risiko Geopolitik Global dan Volatilitas Pasar Saham Amerika Serikat Terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index dengan Kurs Sebagai Variabel Kontrol

الملخص

This study aims to analyze the influence of global geopolitical risk and US stock market volatility on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) with the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar as a control variable. The study uses a quantitative approach with explanatory research. The data used is secondary data in the form of a monthly time series from January 2020 to March 2026, consisting of 75 observations. Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression with EViews software. The results show that global geopolitical risk has no significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index. The volatility of the US stock market has a negative and significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index. The exchange rate variable as a control variable also shows a negative and significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index. 34.93% of the variation in the Jakarta Islamic Index can be explained by the variables in the research model. The research findings indicate that the Indonesian Islamic stock market has a relatively good level of resilience to global geopolitical risk, but remains vulnerable to shocks originating from the volatility of the US stock market and fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate.